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For much of the pandemic, housebound consumers in the West snapped up goods ranging from personal computers to treadmills. Now, as vaccination campaigns take hold, people are indulging in close-contact services—haircuts, dining out, live music events—that were off limits for so long.

That switch back to services is at the center of a high-stakes debate for businesses, economists and policy makers.

They must discern whether Western consumers’ new spending on services, in particular travel, entertainment and personal care, will come at the cost of cutting back on spending for goods. The answer has big implications, in particular, for inflation.

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